Project IRR
17.0%
vs 10.5% project rate
CURRENT CASE · BASE
Bid viability at a glance
The base case is near the screening range, but returns or coverage need improvement. Use the sensitivity view to identify the most effective bid levers.
Conditional / optimise
Calculated 09:07 PM
Equity IRR
20.7%
vs 15.0% equity hurdle
Equity NPV
IDR 173.0 bn
at equity discount rate
Minimum DSCR
0.99×
average 2.14×
LLCR at COD
1.74×
COD debt IDR 396.9 bn
Equity payback
Year 9.9
IDR 240.6 bn invested
ANNUAL PROFILE
Revenue, EBITDA & debt service
RevenueEBITDADebt service
CREDIT VIEW
Debt service coverage
THREE-CASE COMPARISON
Return and resilience
| Scenario | Opening pax | Pax growth | Total capex | Project IRR | Equity IRR | Equity NPV | Min DSCR | LLCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 500,000 | 5.0% | IDR 600.0 bn | 17.0% | 20.7% | IDR 173.0 bn | 0.99× | 1.74× |
| Upside | 600,000 | 7.0% | IDR 570.0 bn | 25.2% | 37.0% | IDR 805.4 bn | 1.63× | 3.42× |
| Downside | 400,000 | 2.5% | IDR 680.0 bn | 6.3% | 5.0% | −IDR 302.0 bn | 0.31× | 0.52× |
AUDITABLE OUTPUT
Project & equity cash flows
Total revenue IDR 10.8 tnTotal EBITDA IDR 7.1 tn
| Line item | C1 | C2 | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 | Y11 | Y12 | Y13 | Y14 | Y15 | Y16 | Y17 | Y18 | Y19 | Y20 | Y21 | Y22 | Y23 | Y24 | Y25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passengers | 0 | 0 | 500,000 | 525,000 | 551,250 | 578,813 | 607,753 | 638,141 | 670,048 | 703,550 | 738,728 | 775,664 | 814,447 | 855,170 | 897,928 | 942,825 | 989,966 | 1,039,464 | 1,091,437 | 1,146,009 | 1,203,310 | 1,263,475 | 1,326,649 | 1,392,981 | 1,462,630 | 1,535,762 | 1,612,550 |
| Aeronautical revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 102.2 | 110.4 | 119.2 | 128.8 | 139.1 | 150.2 | 162.2 | 175.2 | 189.3 | 204.5 | 220.8 | 238.6 | 257.7 | 278.3 | 300.7 | 324.8 | 350.8 | 379.0 | 409.4 | 442.2 | 477.7 | 516.1 | 557.5 | 602.3 | 650.6 |
| Non-aeronautical revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.5 | 50.1 | 54.0 | 58.1 | 62.6 | 67.5 | 72.8 | 78.5 | 84.6 | 91.2 | 98.4 | 106.2 | 114.5 | 123.6 | 133.3 | 143.9 | 155.3 | 167.6 | 180.9 | 195.3 | 210.9 | 227.7 | 245.9 | 265.5 | 286.8 |
| Total revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 148.7 | 160.5 | 173.2 | 186.9 | 201.7 | 217.7 | 235.0 | 253.7 | 273.9 | 295.7 | 319.3 | 344.7 | 372.2 | 401.9 | 434.0 | 468.7 | 506.1 | 546.6 | 590.3 | 637.6 | 688.6 | 743.8 | 803.4 | 867.8 | 937.4 |
| Fixed opex | -0.0 | -0.0 | -45.0 | -46.4 | -47.7 | -49.2 | -50.6 | -52.2 | -53.7 | -55.3 | -57.0 | -58.7 | -60.5 | -62.3 | -64.2 | -66.1 | -68.1 | -70.1 | -72.2 | -74.4 | -76.6 | -78.9 | -81.3 | -83.7 | -86.2 | -88.8 | -91.5 |
| Variable opex | -0.0 | -0.0 | -21.0 | -22.7 | -24.6 | -26.6 | -28.7 | -31.1 | -33.6 | -36.3 | -39.3 | -42.5 | -46.0 | -49.7 | -53.8 | -58.2 | -62.9 | -68.0 | -73.6 | -79.6 | -86.0 | -93.1 | -100.6 | -108.8 | -117.7 | -127.3 | -137.7 |
| Concession fee | -0.0 | -0.0 | -7.9 | -8.5 | -9.0 | -9.7 | -10.3 | -11.0 | -11.8 | -12.6 | -13.5 | -14.4 | -15.5 | -16.6 | -17.7 | -19.0 | -20.4 | -21.9 | -23.5 | -25.2 | -27.0 | -29.0 | -31.2 | -33.5 | -36.0 | -38.7 | -41.6 |
| EBITDA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.8 | 82.9 | 91.8 | 101.5 | 112.0 | 123.5 | 135.9 | 149.4 | 164.1 | 180.0 | 197.4 | 216.1 | 236.5 | 258.7 | 282.7 | 308.7 | 336.9 | 367.5 | 400.7 | 436.6 | 475.6 | 517.8 | 563.5 | 613.0 | 666.7 |
| Initial capex | -300.0 | -300.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Maintenance capex | -0.0 | -0.0 | -4.5 | -4.8 | -5.2 | -5.6 | -6.1 | -6.5 | -7.1 | -7.6 | -8.2 | -8.9 | -9.6 | -10.3 | -11.2 | -12.1 | -13.0 | -14.1 | -15.2 | -16.4 | -17.7 | -19.1 | -20.7 | -22.3 | -24.1 | -26.0 | -28.1 |
| Project cash tax | -0.0 | -0.0 | -9.8 | -11.6 | -13.6 | -15.7 | -18.0 | -20.6 | -23.3 | -26.3 | -29.5 | -33.0 | -36.8 | -41.0 | -45.4 | -50.3 | -55.6 | -61.3 | -67.5 | -74.2 | -81.5 | -89.5 | -104.6 | -113.9 | -124.0 | -134.9 | -146.7 |
| Project cash flow | -300.0 | -300.0 | 60.4 | 66.5 | 73.0 | 80.2 | 87.9 | 96.4 | 105.6 | 115.5 | 126.4 | 138.2 | 151.0 | 164.9 | 179.9 | 196.3 | 214.0 | 233.3 | 254.2 | 276.8 | 301.4 | 328.0 | 350.3 | 381.5 | 415.4 | 452.1 | 491.9 |
| Debt draw | 180.0 | 180.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash interest | -0.0 | -0.0 | -39.7 | -39.7 | -36.1 | -32.5 | -28.9 | -25.3 | -21.6 | -18.0 | -14.4 | -10.8 | -7.2 | -3.6 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Principal repayment | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -36.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
| Equity cash tax | -0.0 | -0.0 | -1.1 | -2.9 | -5.7 | -8.6 | -11.7 | -15.0 | -18.5 | -22.3 | -26.3 | -30.6 | -35.2 | -40.2 | -45.4 | -50.3 | -55.6 | -61.3 | -67.5 | -74.2 | -81.5 | -89.5 | -104.6 | -113.9 | -124.0 | -134.9 | -146.7 |
| Equity cash flow | -120.0 | -120.0 | 29.5 | -0.6 | 8.8 | 18.8 | 29.3 | 40.6 | 52.6 | 65.4 | 79.0 | 93.6 | 109.2 | 126.0 | 179.9 | 196.3 | 214.0 | 233.3 | 254.2 | 276.8 | 301.4 | 328.0 | 350.3 | 381.5 | 415.4 | 452.1 | 491.9 |
| Closing debt | 189.0 | 396.9 | 396.9 | 360.8 | 324.7 | 288.7 | 252.6 | 216.5 | 180.4 | 144.3 | 108.2 | 72.2 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DSCR | — | — | 1.74× | 0.99× | 1.12× | 1.27× | 1.45× | 1.66× | 1.91× | 2.21× | 2.56× | 3.00× | 3.52× | 4.17× | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Debt roll-forward · PASS
Opening + draws + capitalised interest − principal = closing debt.
Project CF identity · PASS
EBITDA − tax − capex + residual value reconciles to project cash flow.
Terminal debt · PASS
Debt fully amortises within the concession.
Input integrity · PASS
Core input relationships are internally consistent.
BIDDER STRESS TEST
What moves the equity case?
One-at-a-time shocks and a two-variable matrix based on the active scenario.
DRIVER RANGE
±10% one-way sensitivity
Opening passengers
18.5%22.8%
Aero yield
18.9%22.4%
Initial capex
22.6%19.1%
Non-aero yield
19.8%21.5%
Fixed opex
21.4%20.0%
Passenger growth
20.0%21.4%
Debt interest
21.1%20.2%
COMBINED STRESS
Traffic growth × initial capex
| Growth ↓ / Capex → | -20% | -10% | 0% | +10% | +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 pp | 21.9% | 19.6% | 17.8% | 16.2% | 14.9% |
| -1 pp | 23.4% | 21.1% | 19.2% | 17.7% | 16.3% |
| 0 pp | 24.9% | 22.6% | 20.7% | 19.1% | 17.7% |
| +1 pp | 26.3% | 24.0% | 22.1% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| +2 pp | 27.7% | 25.4% | 23.4% | 21.8% | 20.4% |
INTERPRETATION
Decision signals
Largest one-way driver
Opening passengers creates the widest ±10% outcome range in the selected metric.
Coverage signal
Minimum DSCR is 0.99×, below the 1.20× reference.
Combined range
The matrix spans 14.9% to 27.7% across the displayed growth and capex shocks.