Port Concession Financial Model
Explore the relationship between tariffs, traffic and investment returns.
Revenue & free cash flow
Annual projection · IDR billion
Revenue composition
Discounted investment recovery
Cumulative discounted cash flow · IDR billion
Investment snapshot
Project assumptions
Monetary inputs marked “bn” are IDR billion. Additional planning assumptions are identified below.
Operating cost approach
Driver mode escalates fixed and per-ton costs with inflation. Percentage mode does not add inflation a second time. OPEX excludes concession fee, depreciation and replacement CAPEX in this model.
Service tariffs & cost allocation
Cost reference: BPP = (BOL + BOTL) / service production; maximum-charge reference = 1.25 × BPP. Actual tariff setting also requires service-level assessment and the applicable approval process.
| Service / billing unit | Base tariff · IDR | Cost allocation % | Year 1 BPP | 1.25 × BPP | Scenario tariff | Reference check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berthing · GT/etmal | 398.57 | 498.21 | 120.00 | Within reference | ||
| Wharf · tonne | 31,316.26 | 39,145.32 | 35,000.00 | Within reference | ||
| Storage · tonne/day | Inactive | — | 1,666.67 | No production |
Uses BPP × (1 + proposed markup) for each active service, then resets the tariff factor to 100%. This is a planning proposal, not an approved charge.
Cost bridge to the tariff reference
Biaya bersama dialokasikan menggunakan persentase Anda. Alokasi yang disederhanakan ini memerlukan pembuktian biaya yang spesifik per layanan. Biaya modal hanya dimasukkan dalam referensi tarif, tidak dikurangkan lagi dari arus kas proyek. Dalam mode persentase, biaya operasional dan konsesi menggunakan tarif dasar workbook dan throughput dasar (sebelum pengali skenario) untuk menghindari perhitungan tarif yang sirkular. Ini adalah proksi biaya perencanaan; biaya dalam mode driver dapat dibuktikan dari anggaran.
Tingkat layanan merupakan pertimbangan regulasi, bukan pengali otomatis di sini. Eskalasi adalah asumsi skenario komersial, bukan hak yang dijamin berdasarkan regulasi PM 95/2015.
Read PM 95 Tahun 2015 · Appendix, pages 9–11Tariff × discount rate
Project NPV · IDR billion · current throughput case. Tariff factors are relative to entered base tariffs. Click a cell to apply that scenario.
| Tariff / discount | 6.30% | 8.30% | 10.30% | 12.30% | 14.30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | |||||
| 90% | |||||
| 100% | |||||
| 110% | |||||
| 120% |
Throughput case comparison
Same tariff factor, discount rate and project assumptions; only throughput changes.
| Case | Year 1 tonnes | NPV · bn | IRR | Discounted payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside · 80% | 1,001,494 | -11.27 | 9.10% | Not reached |
| Base · 100% | 1,251,868 | 4.35 | 10.75% | 36.3 yrs |
| Upside · 120% | 1,502,242 | 19.97 | 12.32% | 21.5 yrs |
Export sensitivity results
Download combinations of five tariff factors, discount rates around the selected rate, and three throughput cases. Duplicate rates at the zero boundary are removed.
Annual project cash flows
IDR billion except throughput. Year 0 investment precedes the first operating year; operating cash flows occur at year-end.
| Year | Throughput · t | Revenue | Cash OPEX | Concession | Depreciation | Tax | CAPEX | Δ WC | Free cash flow | Discounted FCF | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Year 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 80.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -80.00 | -80.00 |
| 2027 | 1,251,868 | 43.93 | 34.20 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.58 | 5.97 | -74.03 |
| 2028 | 1,261,257 | 44.26 | 34.46 | 2.21 | 3.20 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.63 | 5.45 | -68.59 |
| 2029 | 1,270,716 | 44.60 | 34.72 | 2.23 | 3.20 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.67 | 4.97 | -63.62 |
| 2030 | 1,280,247 | 48.30 | 37.60 | 2.42 | 3.20 | 1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.17 | 4.84 | -58.78 |
| 2031 | 1,289,849 | 48.66 | 37.88 | 2.43 | 3.20 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.21 | 4.42 | -54.36 |
| 2032 | 1,299,523 | 49.03 | 38.17 | 2.45 | 3.20 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.26 | 4.03 | -50.32 |
| 2033 | 1,309,269 | 53.10 | 41.34 | 2.65 | 3.20 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.81 | 3.93 | -46.39 |
| 2034 | 1,319,089 | 53.50 | 41.65 | 2.67 | 3.20 | 1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.86 | 3.59 | -42.80 |
| 2035 | 1,328,982 | 53.90 | 41.96 | 2.69 | 3.20 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.91 | 3.28 | -39.53 |
| 2036 | 1,338,949 | 58.38 | 45.45 | 2.92 | 3.20 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.51 | 3.19 | -36.33 |
| 2037 | 1,348,991 | 58.81 | 45.79 | 2.94 | 3.20 | 1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.57 | 2.92 | -33.42 |
| 2038 | 1,359,109 | 59.26 | 46.13 | 2.96 | 3.20 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.63 | 2.66 | -30.76 |
| 2039 | 1,369,302 | 64.18 | 49.96 | 3.21 | 3.20 | 1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.29 | 2.60 | -28.16 |
| 2040 | 1,379,572 | 64.66 | 50.34 | 3.23 | 3.20 | 1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.35 | 2.37 | -25.79 |
| 2041 | 1,389,918 | 65.14 | 50.71 | 3.26 | 3.20 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.42 | 2.16 | -23.62 |
| 2042 | 1,400,343 | 70.55 | 54.93 | 3.53 | 3.20 | 1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.14 | 2.11 | -21.51 |
| 2043 | 1,410,845 | 71.08 | 55.34 | 3.55 | 3.20 | 1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.21 | 1.93 | -19.58 |
| 2044 | 1,421,427 | 71.62 | 55.75 | 3.58 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.28 | 1.76 | -17.82 |
| 2045 | 1,432,087 | 77.57 | 60.38 | 3.88 | 3.20 | 2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.08 | 1.72 | -16.10 |
| 2046 | 1,442,828 | 78.15 | 60.84 | 3.91 | 3.20 | 2.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.16 | 1.57 | -14.53 |
| 2047 | 1,453,649 | 78.73 | 61.29 | 3.94 | 3.20 | 2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.24 | 1.43 | -13.09 |
| 2048 | 1,464,552 | 85.27 | 66.39 | 4.26 | 3.20 | 2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.11 | 1.40 | -11.69 |
| 2049 | 1,475,536 | 85.91 | 66.88 | 4.30 | 3.20 | 2.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.20 | 1.28 | -10.41 |
| 2050 | 1,486,602 | 86.56 | 67.38 | 4.33 | 3.20 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.28 | 1.17 | -9.24 |
| 2051 | 1,497,752 | 93.75 | 72.98 | 4.69 | 3.20 | 2.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.24 | 1.14 | -8.10 |
| 2052 | 1,508,985 | 94.45 | 73.53 | 4.72 | 0.00 | 3.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.63 | 0.99 | -7.11 |
| 2053 | 1,520,302 | 95.16 | 74.08 | 4.76 | 0.00 | 3.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.73 | 0.90 | -6.21 |
| 2054 | 1,531,705 | 103.06 | 80.23 | 5.15 | 0.00 | 3.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.79 | 0.89 | -5.32 |
| 2055 | 1,543,192 | 103.84 | 80.84 | 5.19 | 0.00 | 3.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.89 | 0.81 | -4.51 |
| 2056 | 1,554,766 | 104.61 | 81.44 | 5.23 | 0.00 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.99 | 0.74 | -3.77 |
| 2057 | 1,566,427 | 113.30 | 88.21 | 5.67 | 0.00 | 4.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.16 | 0.73 | -3.05 |
| 2058 | 1,578,175 | 114.15 | 88.87 | 5.71 | 0.00 | 4.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.27 | 0.66 | -2.38 |
| 2059 | 1,590,012 | 115.01 | 89.53 | 5.75 | 0.00 | 4.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.38 | 0.61 | -1.78 |
| 2060 | 1,601,937 | 124.56 | 96.97 | 6.23 | 0.00 | 4.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.66 | 0.59 | -1.18 |
| 2061 | 1,613,951 | 125.50 | 97.70 | 6.27 | 0.00 | 4.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.79 | 0.54 | -0.64 |
| 2062 | 1,626,056 | 126.44 | 98.43 | 6.32 | 0.00 | 4.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.91 | 0.50 | -0.14 |
| 2063 | 1,638,251 | 136.94 | 106.61 | 6.85 | 0.00 | 5.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.32 | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| 2064 | 1,650,538 | 137.97 | 107.41 | 6.90 | 0.00 | 5.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.46 | 0.45 | 0.79 |
| 2065 | 1,662,917 | 139.00 | 108.21 | 6.95 | 0.00 | 5.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.59 | 0.41 | 1.19 |
| 2066 | 1,675,389 | 150.55 | 117.20 | 7.53 | 0.00 | 5.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.14 | 0.40 | 1.59 |
| 2067 | 1,687,955 | 151.68 | 118.08 | 7.58 | 0.00 | 5.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.29 | 0.36 | 1.96 |
| 2068 | 1,700,614 | 152.81 | 118.97 | 7.64 | 0.00 | 5.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.44 | 0.33 | 2.29 |
| 2069 | 1,713,369 | 165.51 | 128.85 | 8.28 | 0.00 | 6.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22.14 | 0.33 | 2.62 |
| 2070 | 1,726,219 | 166.75 | 129.81 | 8.34 | 0.00 | 6.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22.31 | 0.30 | 2.92 |
| 2071 | 1,739,166 | 168.00 | 130.79 | 8.40 | 0.00 | 6.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22.47 | 0.27 | 3.19 |
| 2072 | 1,752,209 | 181.95 | 141.65 | 9.10 | 0.00 | 6.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.34 | 0.27 | 3.46 |
| 2073 | 1,765,351 | 183.32 | 142.71 | 9.17 | 0.00 | 6.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.52 | 0.24 | 3.70 |
| 2074 | 1,778,591 | 184.69 | 143.78 | 9.23 | 0.00 | 6.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24.71 | 0.22 | 3.93 |
| 2075 | 1,791,931 | 200.03 | 155.73 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 7.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26.76 | 0.22 | 4.15 |
| 2076 | 1,805,370 | 201.53 | 156.89 | 10.08 | 0.00 | 7.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26.96 | 0.20 | 4.35 |
Workbook inputs & reconciliation
| Input | Source cell | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Initial CAPEX · FSO | 7. Capex!H13 | IDR 80 billion |
| First operating year / throughput | 8. Throughput!C12 / J12 | 2027 / 1,251,868.05 tonnes |
| Growth / GT conversion | 8. Throughput!D4 / K4 | 0.75% / tonnes ÷ 1.26 |
| Tariffs: berth / wharf / storage | 4. Asumsi & Referensi!F43:F45 | 120 / 35,000 / 1,666.67 |
| Tariff increase / interval | 4. Asumsi & Referensi!F11 / E11 | 7.5% / every 3 years |
| OPEX / fee / tax / WACC | 4. Asumsi & Referensi!F12:F14 / F28 | 77.85% / 5% / 22% / 10.2984% |
| Horizon / storage days / berth stay | 6. Dashboard!B13 / assumptions F10 / F9 | 50 years / 0 days / 1 etmal |
New editable assumptions: 25-year depreciation life, no terminal proceeds, zero working-capital requirement, no recurring replacement by default, 80%/120% throughput cases and service-cost allocation. Driver-mode costs, depreciation, capital-cost allowance and proposed markup require validation against the project budget.
Calculation conventions
EBITDA = revenue − cash OPEX − concession fee
Tax = max(0, EBITDA − depreciation) × tax rate
FCF = EBITDA − tax − replacement CAPEX − change in working capital
NPV = − initial CAPEX − initial working capital + Σ FCFₜ / (1 + discount rate)ᵗ
Straight-line depreciation applies to initial CAPEX and each replacement cohort from its investment year. No tax-loss carryforwards, financing, VAT, terminal asset sale or handback compensation are modeled. Working capital is funded in Year 0 and recovered in the final year. Replacement occurs at the selected interval, excluding the final concession year. IRR shows “Multiple / N.A.” if cash-flow sign changes are not unique. Profitability index is PV of positive cash flows divided by PV of negative cash flows. Payback is interpolated first recovery; subsequent replacement may reverse it. Financial recovery is not a legally determined concession term.
Regulatory references
PM 95 Tahun 2015 — full-cost tariff reference, allocation of direct and indirect costs, production units, margin and service level. The numeric tariffs in this model come from the workbook, not a statutory tariff schedule.
JDIH Kemenhub lists PM 95/2015 as in force when checked on 6 October 2026. PM 72/2017, amended by PM 121/2018, is a separate reference for tariff types, structure and setting mechanisms. This model does not certify regulatory approval.
Use the operating budget for a new operator or substantiated historical cost data for an established operator. Neither the 5% concession fee nor the 7.5% escalation is asserted to be mandated by PM 95/2015.
